Let's not get melancholy about what should have been done or about the grave injustices of the system. The revolution isn't coming to replace the stupid with the wise so we need to learn to adapt to continued stupidity. In times like this we really need to know where things are going so we can plan ahead. My only qualifications for this are that I managed to predict the crash was coming (and warned everyone I possibly could, some of whom are even grateful) which puts me well ahead of the worlds PhD economists who praise the god of the invisible hand and also seriously well ahead of Alan Greenspan, that latter-day Oracle of Delphi whose inscrutable pronouncements were enough to move entire markets. Mind you, I didn't manage to see then how exactly to prepare for it, apart from moving to a country that didn't see the boom in the first place. The plan was to hold up in this safe haven until other real estate markets corrected to a sensible level and then pick up a bargain. I really didn't expect France to nosedive as well because they had laws to prevent bank speculations. Those sneaky bankers got around the laws that were meant to protect them. Never underestimate the stupidity of the greedy! Happily it was only the big few. Unhappily they still don't quite realize the first role of a bank is to lend money to small businesses, not to gamble with their savers money. Sarko needs to step in here. From the rather pathetic selection of world leaders, he's likely the best man for the job.
Unlike our inglorious leaders I don't expect the dumb suckers who got us into this mess will be to be able to get us out of it so I need to look for guidelines elsewhere. A simple barometer to economic health is to look around and see who still has healthy manufacturing sectors or a lot of natural resources but without too many mouths to feed. We come up with Japan, Germany, France for the first part, Australia, Canada, Brazil, Russia for the second. China and India will be catching up with the rest of the world for a while and then they'll have to deal with a population who'll want unions, social security, pensions etc. The USA is a tricky beast to judge because with that enormous level of debt they really should have tanked by now just like Argentina did. That they haven't is entirely due to the worlds central bankers continuing to buy up US debt and continuing to use dollars as a reserve currency. This doesn't really make any sense but then central bankers never did. Clearly the rest of the world still looks to the USA to bring us out of the depression.
Yet the USA does have a lot of natural resources, and it does have the most encouraging entrepreneurial spirit backed by the best venture capitalist culture by far. They don't mind losing money on most things as long as they gain enough money from the few things that do work. So maybe they can do it after all. France doesn't work that way more's the pity. It's odd but there could be jobs for everyone here - the place is crying out for tradesmen of all sorts. We just can't get them. Every school-leaver wants to be a bureaucrat it seems. Yet entrepreneurs will need to lead the recovery. That there aren't enough small businessmen is due to a double whammy: too much unnecessary burdens placed on them by the state and too many of those bloody bureaucrats. Better said, too much government. It is true that the best thing a government can do for a business is to get the hell out of the way. I'd dearly like to know how to get my hands on this zero rate of interest that the European banks think will crank up the economy. Instead it's being used by big banks to participate in yet more dumb speculation. It just doesn't get to the entrepreneurs. I'm not that much in favour of nationalised banks but if that's the only way for us entrepreneurs to get the stimulus then let's do it.
Anyway here's the plan. Whatever you are selling, make it cheaper. People just don't have the cash just now. Downsize your expenses, so get a smaller house and factory. Take advantage of any zero percent interest schemes you can eg by swapping your credit card and getting eco-loans for insulation, geothermal heating etc. While it's not smart getting in debt it's necessary to smooth things over. Find out what buzzwords are likely to unlock the purses of these government grant agencies and redirect your business plan that way; it doesn't matter if the whole idea is dumb - most business plans stink anyway - just get the money and adapt the idea to something that people will want or need. Do not invest in dollar holdings; instead hold still for now and buy land in about a year. I already see some very tempting real estate that is an absolute steal. There are certain places in the world that will recover. eg Think Florida, not New Mexico.
Technology is our saviour. Anything that gets us to do the job quicker or otherwise saves us money. So any services run through the internet are good. If you can invent something to get rid of spam or protect against internet fraudsters then you've got it made. Robotics will be big and so will long-life batteries to run them. Look for the software that really costs too much and undercut the bastards. They deserve it. Don't worry about losing a customer who says he pays more for whatever reason; if your quality is good then you don't need him. Find someone smarter instead. Entire sectors of expensive software will soon be ditched by government departments in order to save money. That means more Openoffice and less Microsoft Office, more Alibre, less Inventor (I hope anyway). More Linux, less Windows. Games are still to the fore and they'll become more immersive and real, so look for things that'll cater for that: Virtual objects will need to break more realistically than before for example. Virtual offices will proliferate with net-meetings being the norm rather than the exception. Our cars will get lighter so carbon fibre will be popular and cheaper.
Don't listen to the born-again eco-freaks that say the warming planet will cause this or that because a) they are mostly abject hypocrites, b) they are guessing on the pessimistic side, c) we've seen this catastrophism before many times and it always smells the same way, d) the politicians are only paying lip-service to them now, e) the science behind it is pathetically poor f) the real-world observations say the hypothesis is far too simplistic and too dismissive of natural changes, g) models without validation are useless - if you need an example then look at the financial models that predicted unlimited growth; these were actually much better models and were created by far smarter people than climate scientists (similar hubris though). Hence business-wise don't trust any green-tech unless it is actually a good idea and can make a profit without subsidy. Do not buy carbon credits - they are run by conmen. Solar panels will be good if you are in a hot place. Geothermal heating will rocket in popularity. Smart-looking electric cars will be popular whereas the ugly ones just won't - look at Renaults new electric cars, heck I really want one of them and I don't care about the 100 mile range because I just never go that far. What I really want too though is an electric driver so I can relax in the back. I wouldn't plan on nuclear power coming out of the cold - despite all the current green-washing the real problem with it always was it's huge costs. Governments don't have the money. Coal to gas technology will however be popular - natural gas power is far more efficient than coal and needs far fewer moving parts. Crucially though, it can be privately funded and the buildtime is quick.
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